Photo: Messenger
In the second quarter of the current financial year (October-December’24), there has been a big decline in the economic growth of Bangladesh. At constant prices, growth during this period came down to 3.78 per cent whereas the growth rate in the previous quarter was 6.1 per cent.
This figure has emerged in the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and growth rate update report. According to the BBS report, on a point-to-point basis, there was a growth of 3.78 per cent in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24 at constant prices.
Compared to that, the growth in the second quarter of FY23 was 7.8 per cent and the growth in the second quarter of FY22 was 9.3 per cent. Meanwhile, growth in all sectors of industry and services declined in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of the current fiscal year.
Only the agriculture sector has grown. In the second quarter of the current financial year, the growth in agriculture was 4.65 per cent, which was 1.4 per cent in the first quarter. Compared to the first quarter, the growth in the industrial sector declined from 9.63 per cent to 3.24 per cent and in the services sector to 3.6 per cent from 3.73 per cent.
Besides, on a point-to-point basis as compared to the same period last fiscal, the growth in the industry and services sectors slowed significantly while that of agriculture increased.
The agriculture sector grew at 4.65 per cent in the second quarter of FY24 at constant prices on a point-to-point basis, which was 4.22 per cent in the second quarter of FY23 and 2.2 per cent in the same quarter of FY22.
On the other hand, on a point-to-point basis at constant prices, the growth of the industrial sector in the second quarter of the current financial year was 3.24 per cent, which was 10 per cent in the same quarter of the financial year 2022-23 and 14.50 per cent in the second quarter of the financial year 2021-22.
On a point-to-point basis at constant prices, the services sector grew at 3.6 per cent in the second quarter of FY24, which was 6.62 per cent in the same period of FY23 and 7.25 per cent in the second quarter of FY22.
It should be noted that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has predicted that Bangladesh’s GDP growth in the current financial year could be 6.1 per cent. However, two weeks ago, the World Bank said GDP growth could be 5.6 per cent. The gap between the two organisations’ forecasts is 0.5 percentage points.
Last Thursday, the Manila-based organisation published the Asian Development Outlook April 2024 in a press release and said that Bangladesh’s growth may increase to 6.6 per cent at the end of the next fiscal year 2024-25. ADB’s Chief Economist Albert Park said, “We see strong and stable growth in most economies in developing Asia this year and next year.”
Albert Park also said consumer confidence is improving and investment is broadly resilient. External demand also appears to be slowing, particularly for semiconductors.
Policy-makers need to be more cautious, as there are several risks. These include supply chain disruptions, uncertainty about US monetary policy, the impact of extreme weather and further weakness in asset markets in China, Park added.
Messenger/Disha
