Alexander-Arnold. Photo: Collected
When Jurgen Klopp announced his summer exit from Liverpool, the rumors started. Virgil van Dijk reportedly wanted out. There was no way Mohamed Salah could stay for another season. Even recruits, signed by Klopp, supposedly had one eye on the door. That talk all seemed preemptive and reactionary - the standard discussions that come with managerial change.
However, in recent weeks, a new rumor has appeared. Real Madrid reportedly want Trent Alexander-Arnold. Not only are they curious, but they are also "actively monitoring" the situation, according to the reports. Los Blancos are supposedly ready to strike.
This is not just a question of cash. There are emotions at play here, questions of loyalty surrounding a boyhood Liverpool supporter and academy product who might be tempted by a move to Madrid. Liverpool fans will, undoubtedly, be wary of transfer sagas of old. Luis Suarez to Barcelona. Fernando Torres to Chelsea. At his peak, Steven Gerrard seemed set to depart yearly, with Los Blancos repeatedly enquiring about his availability - only to have their advances rebuffed.
And so we arrive at Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool vice-captain, and presumptive lifelong red. The likely Liverpool perspective here is all but clear: he will not be for sale. This is just agent talk. But the Madrid view makes little sense, too, as Alexander-Arnold is too expensive for even the financial might of Los Blancos to make happen.
Assume, for a brief second, that Alexander-Arnold does want to leave Liverpool, that he is willing to uproot from his home, and discard the connections he has to the city and its fans. This becomes a complex thing. Alexander-Arnold is in a position of power here. He has shown few intentions of changing allegiances and has no real reason to sacrifice whatever negotiating power he may have.
His salary demands would be significant. Alexander-Arnold makes £180,000 ($230,000) per week at Anfield, and will certainly feel he is worth more than that. There has been no talk of how much, exactly, he will command weekly if he is to sign an extension, but it's not unreasonable for him to ask for something upwards of the £200,000 ($250,000) per week club captain Van Dijk takes in.
If he is to look at Los Blancos' payroll, he will certainly feel he is owed around the £275,000 ($350,000) they currently shell out to Federico Valverde every week - if not more than that. Throw in a handsome signing bonus, whatever incentives might be in a contract, and this seems an expensive endeavor.
The Liverpool situation - if it even exists - is difficult. It's hard to picture the Reds letting Alexander-Arnold go, even if he is to stall on contract negotiations. For all of the talk about getting maximum value out of a player who might leave, Alexander-Arnold is simply too crucial to this side to leave based on uncertainty alone. The only way this deal will be made to happen is if the right-back forces his way out.
And even if he does, Liverpool would seem to be well within their rights to demand a handsome fee for his services. There may be a contract dispute at play here, but zoom out, and this is still a 25-year-old, arguably the most complete passer in the game not named Kevin de Bruyne, and among the most talented ball-strikers in football. For all of the talk of defensive weaknesses and potential frailties at right-back, Alexander-Arnold is world-class.
He will command the kind of transfer fee in line with his quality. Liverpool may not be able to ask for upwards of £100 million ($126m) that he is certainly worth in today's market, but they can still ask for something approaching that.
And it is here that Madrid's other transfer business must be brought into question. The big one is, of course, Kylian Mbappe. The forward has, depending on which version of the same report you believe, already sorted his move to Madrid. All of the talk so far has suggested that Mbappe has made some uncharacteristic sacrifices to finally make his move to Santiago Bernabeu.
He is not asking for the kind of astronomical base salary that he rejected just two years ago. But he is still expensive. He will be Madrid's highest earner, and is set to be given one of the biggest signing-on fees in recent footballing history - somewhere between €120-€150 million (£103m-£128m /$130m-$162m). He is also set to retain an 80 percent share of the image rights in any future deals he signs. Madrid is not going to lose money from his signature; he is both a footballing rarity and a marketing jewel. But he will inevitably be a hefty financial commitment for Los Blancos, who are already stretched reasonably thin.
Things are further complicated by another similar signing reportedly in the works. Alphonso Davies is stalling on negotiations to agree on a new deal at Bayern Munich, and hasn't hidden his interest in making a Madrid move. He, too, is on a contract that expires at the end of next season. And while Alexander-Arnold's discussions have been mostly kept under wraps, Davies's lack of movement has been remarkably public. Max Eberl, the Bavarians' new sporting director, has showed little hesitation in offering updates on negotiations, even suggesting that Bayern was near making a final offer to the Canadian full-back. Madrid's interest is well-documented at this point. If they are to spend big, that seems the likelier move.
There are other commitments elsewhere, too. A deal to make Joselu's deal permanent - although club-friendly - will cost a chunk of cash. According to The Athletic, Los Blancos have the option to sign Take Kubo from Real Sociedad on a cut-price deal due to a clause they worked into his original transfer to their La Liga rivals. This is not Alexander-Arnold or Bust, but other options could further drain the bank account.
There is a previous here. For a while, Liverpool have lost some of their best players, in their prime years, to bigger clubs with more financial power. Michael Owen left for Madrid in 2004. Torres left for Chelsea in 2011. Suarez moved to Barcelona in 2014. A year later, Raheem Sterling moved to Manchester City. But those all felt inevitable. They were players on incomplete teams, individuals looking for a way out, who had more to give on a bigger stage.
But one particular event does offer a reason for fear. There are multiple different versions of the same story, but in 2005, Gerrard reportedly wanted out. The Reds had just won the Champions League, their captain leading the charge, and the club didn't offer the kind of financial commitment that Gerrard felt acknowledged his performance for the club.
When Jose Mourinho's Chelsea came knocking, Gerrard's head turned. Exactly how close he was to leaving is not fully clear, but he was certainly open to the deal, and only turned down a move at the last minute.
And Alexander-Arnold, who grew up idolizing the very same player, appears to be in the same category. A lot is made of the boyhood academy player who works their way into the first team. As a narrative, it's dramatized, sometimes overdone. But in Alexander-Arnold's case, it does feel rather real. The connection to the city - complete with the academy programs he has set up, local charity work, and all - runs deep. And for all of the hearsay, Twitter speculation and semi-validating quotes from middling sources, it seems an exit from England is unlikely.
Still, the fear is very much apparent. Madrid, after all, is one of the biggest clubs in the world - and they have pinched players before. Despite all of that, though, this time might not be so easy. Madrid has priorities elsewhere, and more pressing holes to fill. Scousers should feel safe for now, then. Their homegrown hero is likely to remain at Anfield for a long time yet.
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